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Politics

Market of the Day

CA-27 House Election Winner

$0 Volume ↓ 41% today
92% Yes chance
Yes 92%
No 8%
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Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

Abbas Araghchi 55%
Donald Trump 51%

US announces location or date of US x Iran deal signing by…?

June 15 39%
June 14 29%

US and Iran sign an agreement by…?

June 30 64%
July 31 63%

What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (June 15)

Right 95%
Understand 93%

What will be said on the next Lemonade Stand Podcast? (June 17)

Hormuz 75%
AI 5+ times 71%
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Elon Musk # tweets June 13 – June 15, 2026?

40-64 43%
65-89 40%
Moving Now

Another critical Cloudflare incident by…?

August 31 73%
July 31 58%

How many World Cup matches will Trump attend?

1 56%
2 30%

UT-02 Republican Primary Winner

Blake Moore 54%
Karianne Lisonbee 43%
Moving Now

MD-04 Democratic Primary Winner

Glenn Ivey 95%
Shavonne Hedgepeth 33%

MD-03 Democratic Primary Winner

Sarah Elfreth 94%
Robert Morrison 25%

What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

Thank 5+ times 91%
Defense 88%

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?

Anthony Albanese 54%
Angus Taylor 36%

Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?

33% chance
Moving Now

Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?

27% chance

How many senators will vote for Todd Blanche as Attorney General?

No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn 45%
56 42%
Moving Now

Pará Governor Election Winner

Hana Ghassan 41%
Dr. Daniel Santos 38%

Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner

Jorginho Mello 82%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 9%

Paraná Governor Election Winner

Sergio Moro 79%
Rafael Greca 9%

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Chico Machado 27%
André Ceciliano 24%

Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?

18% chance

Next Mayor of Johannesburg?

Helen Zille 38%
Loyiso Masuku 19%

2026 Aberdeen South By-Election Winner

Richard Gordon Thomson 71%
Douglas Lumsden 28%

2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry By-Election Winner

Lara Bird 83%
Heather Doran 10%

Elon Musk # tweets in June 2026?

920-959 16%
880-919 13%

Will Zohran Mamdani stream on Twitch again by June 12?

21% chance

Elon Musk # tweets June 12 – June 19, 2026?

200-219 18%
180-199 17%
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Ted Cruz # posts June 12 – June 19, 2026?

120-139 32%
160-179 31%
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CZ # posts June 12 – June 19, 2026?

<20 83%
20-39 14%

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts June 12 – June 19, 2026?

160-179 39%
80-99 34%
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White House # posts June 12 – June 19, 2026?

180-199 37%
200+ 35%
Moving Now

Zelenskyy # posts June 12 – June 19, 2026?

60-79 51%
40-59 33%

Khamenei # posts June 12 – June 19, 2026?

<5 82%
25-29 43%