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Economy

Market of the Day

US bank failure by June 30?

$600 Volume ↑ 59% today
79% Yes chance
Yes 79%
No 21%
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June Inflation US – Annual

3.9% 36%
3.8% 26%
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June Inflation US – Monthly

≤0.1% 86%
0.2% 7%
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Core CPI YoY – June 2026

2.9% 49%
2.7% 32%
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ISM Manufacturing PMI – June 2026

54.0–54.9 45%
52.0–52.9 43%

June Unemployment Rate

4.3% 34%
4.4% 28%

What will the median home value in Chicago be on June 30?

$342k – $345k 29%
$339k – $342k 20%
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What will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be on June 30?

<$1.172M 40%
$1.181M – $1.190M 32%

What will the median home value in Miami be on June 30?

$1.138M – $1.171M 56%
>$1.237M 41%

Brazil GDP Growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

1.2%–1.4% 50%
≥1.5% 44%

What will the median home value in the US be on June 30?

<$429k 42%
$429k – $431k 18%

What will the median home value in New York City be on June 30?

$606k – $613k 48%
$613k – $620k 32%

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on June 30?

>$1.244M 31%
$1.230M – $1.244M 21%
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What will the median home value in the Austin, Texas Metro area be on June 30?

>$495k 39%
<$481k 31%

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on June 30?

<$554k 76%
$554k – $558k 11%
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People's Bank of China rate change in June?

No Change 97%
Decrease 2%

Durable Goods Orders MoM – May 2026

<-4% 33%
-4%– -2% 25%
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Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by June 30?

↑ 1.8M 67%
↓ 1.7M 43%
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USD x Iranian rials End of June?

1.8-1.9M 25%
1.5-1.6M 21%
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University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – June 2026

46.0–48.9 40%
43.0–45.9 22%

Bank of Korea decision in August?

25 bps cut 48%
No Change 46%

South African Reserve Bank decision in July?

25 bps hike 62%
50+ bps cut 34%
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US bank failure by June 30?

79% chance
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Elon Musk Net Worth on June 30?

800b+ 97%
<660b 1%

Japan GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

-2.4%– -1.6% 46%
3.2%–4.0% 46%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

1% chance

Will McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by…?

December 31, 2027 87%
June 30, 2027 56%

Will USD hit ___ Indonesian rupiah by June 30?

↑ 18,000 100%
↑ 17,800 100%
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2nd largest company end of June?

Alphabet 64%
Apple 31%
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3rd largest company end of June?

Apple 59%
Alphabet 37%

Fed Decision in September?

No change 74%
25 bps increase 16%

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

No change 72%
25 bps increase 21%
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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August

No change 84%
25 bps increase 17%
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

49% chance