2023 NFL WEEK 1 PICKS & BEST BETS: OPENING WEEK TO SUPER BOWL 58

We’ll be bringing you our best best each and every week throughout the NFL season! It starts with the opening week of the season, and a number of incredible matchups that will whet the appetite of any NFL fan with an interest in wagering.

It starts with the defending Super Bowl champions raising their championship banner against the suddenly hopeful Detroit Lions and ends with Aaron Rodgers and the Jets hosting Josh Allen and the Bills.

Week 1 NFL Schedule

NFL WEEK 1 PICKS & MATCHUPS: PICKS AGAINST THE SPREAD, MONEYLINE, OVER-UNDER

Start the season off right and discover our latest NFL week 1 predictions and odds for the opening week. Week 1 action kicks off in true NFL fashion with strong matchups across the entire league. We're here to provide the best early picks throughout the entire 2023 season 

DETROIT LIONS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Money Line: KC -290; Detroit +235

Point Spread: -6.5 

Over-Under: 54.5O/U

This game is supposed to be the signature matchup as the NFL opens the regular season, but the Lions may be in over their heads. Kansas City has won 18 of its last 19 games against NFC opponents, and the Lions ranked 32nd in yards allowed per game. That works right into the hands of Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, the best player at his position in the league.

The Lions are expected to win the NFC North this year, and Jared Goff leads the 4th-ranked offense, but staying close in the second half looks like a difficult proposition.

Prediction: KC, Straight up and ATS.

CAROLINA PANTHERS VS ATLANTA FALCONS

Money Line: Atlanta -176, Carolina +148

Point Spread: -3.5, 

Over-Under: 40

Both teams have untested quarterbacks as Desmond Ridder leads the Falcons and No.1 draft choice Bryce Young is in a similar position for the Panthers. Ridder looked good after he replaced Marcus Mariota last year – 73 of 115 for 708 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions – but he has much to prove. Young is tiny at 5-10 and could get overwhelmed this season.

The Falcons have dominated this matchup, winning 8 of the last 11 meetings, and 4 of the last 6 meetings in Atlanta.

Prediction: Atlanta, Straight up

HOUSTON TEXANS VS BALTIMORE RAVENS

Money Line: Baltimore -480, Houston +370

Point Spread: -10

Over-Under: 44

The Ravens should be one of the glamour teams in the NFL this year as Lamar Jackson has a rewarding contract and a slew of big-play receivers in wideouts Odell Beckham and rookie Zay Flowers along with tight end Mark Andrews. The Texans are starting over once again with first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Even if both perform well this season, a slow start is likely.

The Ravens have a 9-2 record all-time vs. the Texans, and that includes a 7-4 mark against the spread.

Prediction: Baltimore, Straight up

CINCINNATI BENGALS VS CLEVELAND BROWNS

Money Line: Cincinnati -134, Cleveland +114

Point Spread: +2.5

Over-Under: 47.5

The Bengals made it to the Super Bowl two years ago and narrowly lost the AFC title game last year to the Chiefs. Head coach Zac Taylor’s team is the No. 1 challenger to Kansas City thanks in large part to QB Joe Burrow, who is clearly elite. His only issue is the strained calf he suffered during training camp. Embattled QB Deshaun Watson was awful for the Browns last year and must show significant improvement if Cleveland is going to have a respectable season.

Shockingly, the Browns have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between the 2 teams, including the last 5 games played in Cleveland.

Prediction: Cleveland, Straight up and ATS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Money Line: Jacksonville -210, Indianapolis +176

Point Spread: +4.5

Over-Under: 45.5

The Jaguars demonstrated huge improvement during the 2022 season as Trevor Lawrence gained a high degree of comfort in Doug Pedersen’s offense and the Jaguars won their last 5 regular-season games and then delivered a remarkable comeback triumph over the Chargers in the Wild Card game. Lawrence has a chance to be a top-5 quarterback this season. The Colts are a mess with rookie Anthony Richardson at quarterback. He is very athletic but lacks accomplishment and accuracy.

The 2 teams have split the last 10 games, but the Jaguars are 7-2-1 ATS vs. the Colts in that span.

Prediction: Jacksonville, Straight up; Indianapolis ATS

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Money Line: Minnesota -245, Tampa Bay +200

Point Spread: -6

Over-Under: 45.5

The Vikings are one of the most disrespected teams in the NFL despite rolling to the division title last year with a 13-4 record. Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the league and he has an excellent rapport with QB Kirk Cousins. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores is likely to have a positive impact on the 31st-ranked defense in the league. The Bucs no longer have GOAT quarterback Tom Brady, and current starter Baker Mayfield just does not compare. Star wideout Mike Evans wants to be traded.

The Vikings won 7 of 8 home games last season, and that trend should continue here.

Prediction: Minnesota, Straight up and ATS

TENNESSEE TITANS VS NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Money Line: New Orleans -166, Tennessee +140

Point Spread: -3

Over-Under: 41.5

The Titans are coming off a poor 7-10 season, but it would be wrong to underestimate this team. Veteran head coach Mike Vrabel is one of the best in the business and he has Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry coming back along with one of the best defensive lines in the business. They will be ready for the start of the season against retread head coach Dennis Allen and retread quarterback Derek Carr. A downturn from Alvin Kamara is expected.

The Titans have struggled in this series, especially as an underdog. They are 2-5 straight up and ATS vs. the Saints when getting points.

Prediction: Tennessee, Straight up and ATS

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Money Line: San Francisco -138, Pittsburgh +118

Point Spread: +2.5

Over-Under: 40.5

The 49ers have the talent and depth to make a run at the Eagles as the best team in the NFC this year, but the big question is the health and productivity of quarterback Brock Purdy. The combination of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle will allow the Niners to light up the scoreboard most weeks.

Look for a huge step up from Kenny Pickett this year, and wide receiver George Pickens is ready to become a star. The Steelers are ready to show off one of the most improved defenses in the league, led by safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The Steelers are 7-2 straight up in their last 9 home games against NFC opponents.

Prediction: Pittsburgh, ATS

ARIZONA CARDINALS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

Money Line: Washington -330, Arizona +265

Point Spread: -7

Over-Under: 40.5

The Commanders are clearly a team in transition, and that’s a good thing. A dark cloud has been lifted from the franchise as owner Dan Snyder has been evicted and the team is about regaining respectability throughout the NFL. Head coach Ron Rivera is searching for a quarterback, but he has one of the most underrated defensive fronts in the league with Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.

The Cardinals are clearly tanking it for the opportunity to draft Caleb Williams of USC. They will almost certainly be the worst team in the league this year.

Washington has dominated this series for years, especially when the Commanders play at home. They are 23-4 straight up at home against the beleaguered Cardinals.

Prediction: Washington, Straight up

GREEN BAY PACKERS VS CHICAGO BEARS

Money Line: Chicago -112, Green Bay -104

Point Spread: -1

Over-Under: 43.5

The Packers begin their new era without Aaron Rodgers, and it seems clear that Jordan Love will go through a learning curve before he hits his stride. Aaron Jones gives the Packers a solid running game and they clearly have the best defense of any of the NFC North teams.

The Bears are dependent on Justin Fields showing improvement as a passer, and that means he must demonstrate accuracy on short- and medium-range passes. His best asset is wideout D.J. Moore, who could become a star if Fields does his part.

The Packers have won 9 of their last 10 games in Chicago straight up and they have also gone 8-2 ATS in the Windy City.

Prediction: Green Bay, Straight up and ATS

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS VS DENVER BRONCOS

Money Line: Denver -210, Las Vegas +176 

Point Spread: -4

Over-Under: 44

The line seems quite strange here because the Broncos were a brutal 5-12 team that finished in last place in the AFC West, and they brought back an ineffective Russell Wilson at quarterback. The biggest difference is at the head coach where the brutal Nathaniel Hackett has been replaced by Sean Payton.

The Raiders parted company with Derek Carr and have turned over the offense to injury prone Jimmy Garoppolo. If the Raiders can protect their new quarterback, they have a pair of big-play performers in Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams to surprise quite a few opponents.

The Raiders have dominated this series recently, going 8-2 straight up and 9-1 ATS vs. the Broncos. 

Prediction: Raiders, Straight Up and ATS

MIAMI DOLPHINS VS LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

Money Line: Los Angeles -152, Miami +128

Point Spread: -2.5

Over-Under: 50.5

The Dolphins and Chargers could be two of the best teams in the league this season, and both should make the playoffs. The Dolphins have two of the most explosive receivers in the NFL in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is a game changer when healthy.

Justin Herbert may be the top rival to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. He can make every throw in the book and the WR crew of Mike Williams, Keenan Allen and Quentin Johnston could be the best trio in the league. The defense has to step up in 2023, and they have the firepower in Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to do just that.

This is an under series, as 15 of the last 20 games in the series have gone under the total.

Prediction: Miami, Straight up and ATS

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Money Line: Philadelphia -184, New England +154

Point Spread: +3.5

Over-Under: 45

The Eagles are likely to be impacted by the Super Bowl hangover because they had the lead in that game in the 4th quarter before the Chiefs finished them off. However, the Eagles appear to be in an excellent position to dominate again behind Jalen Hurts and one of the most physical defenses in the league.

The Pats could get an emotional lift as they welcome back retired GOAT Tom Brady for a pregame celebration, but current QB Mac Jones must improve his playmaking if the Pats are going to have a respectable year.

The Eagles are 7-3 in their last 10 games against AFC opponents, and 8 of their last 10 games against AFC teams have gone over the total.

Prediction: Philadelphia, Straight up

LOS ANGELES RAMS VS SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Money Line: Seattle -245, Los Angeles Rams +200

Point Spread: -5.5

Over-Under: 45.5

The Seahawks may offer one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, and they have Geno Smith to thank for it. Smith exceeded all expectations last year – 4,282 passing yards, 30-11 TD-interception ratio – and he should deliver similar numbers this year. RB Kenneth Walker III and WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both big-play performers.

The Rams are nothing like the team that won the Super Bowl 2 years ago. The offensive line is substandard and Aaron Donald is fighting alone on the defensive side of the ball.

The Seahawks have won 15 of their last 20 home games against the Rams.

Prediction: Seattle, Straight up and ATS

DALLAS COWBOYS VS NEW YORK GIANTS

Money Line: Dallas -166, New York Giants +140

Point Spread: +3.5

Over-Under: 46.5

The Cowboys have designs on taking the NFC East crown away from the Eagles this year, and the key to their chances appears to be edge rusher Micah Parsons. He had 13.5 sacks last year and he may be the best defensive player in the league. The Cowboys need Dak Prescott to cut down on his league-worst 15 interceptions. The Giants will depend on Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley to drive a spike through the Cowboys’ dreams. The Cowboys are 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the Giants.

Prediction: Dallas, Straight up; New York Giants, ATS

BUFFALO BILLS VS NEW YORK JETS

Money Line: Buffalo -138, New York Jets +118

Point Spread: +2.5

Over-Under: 46.5

The opening Monday Night game of the season features a New York Jets team that has a real chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010 and win the division for the first time since 2002. Aaron Rodgers may be a diva, but he is also an elite quarterback when healthy. The Jets also have one of the best defenses in the league, and if they can beat the three-time defending AFC East champion Bills, they will serve notice that they are for real.

Josh Allen threw 35 TD passes last year and ran for 7 more TDs, and he is the key to Buffalo’s Super Bowl chances.

The Bills have dominated AFC East opponents, winning 17 of their last 20 games within the division.

Prediction: New York Jets, Straight up and ATS

WEEK 1 NFL GAMES BEST BETS & EXPERT PREDICTIONS

Week 1 games can be quite challenging for any handicapper. Selections are based largely on last year’s results combined with the major personnel changes of the offseason. We have been waiting since the Super Bowl to jump back in, and we do it with enthusiasm.

BEST BETS NFL THIS WEEK

Kansas City -6.5 over Detroit 

A lot of the wise guys want to tell you how much the Lions have improved and that they will win their division title for the first time since 1993. They had the worst defense in the league last year, and they are opening on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions who have won 18 of their last 19 against NFC opponents.

Miami +2.5 over Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams are getting quite a bit of hype this year, but the Dolphins look sharper and more confident at this point. Tua Tagovailoa hits more big plays than Justin Herbert, and the Dolphins outlast the Chargers.

New York Jets +2.5 over Buffalo

The Jets are finally ready to climb the NFL ladder, and they might as well do it in the first week of the season. Aaron Rodgers will be solid, but it’s the Jets defense that will finish the job.

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