Relationship Between Home Field Advantage and Success in Soccer

There are many factors that play a role in the final result of a soccer match. The level of talent on each team might be at the top of the list. Teamwork, coaching and strategy also play a role. If home-field advantage exists, location can affect the outcome in soccer, as well.

Home-field advantage is not the same for every soccer team. It’s different from club to club and league to league. It’s often presumed that a team has an edge because it’s playing in its home stadium. If home teams have an advantage, can its exact impact be quantified?

Let’s take a look at the relationship between home-field advantage and success in soccer.

Home-Field Advantage in the English Premier League

There is undoubtedly a link between home-field advantage and success in the best soccer league in the world. Almost all of the teams in the English Premier League perform better at home than they do on the road.

With only a few days left in the 2022-2023 English Premier League season, 19 of 20 teams had more success at home than they did on the road. And they didn’t do so by a small margin. The difference between the teams’ performances was massive.

In the English Premier League, a win counts for three points in the standings and a draw counts for one point. Thirteen teams averaged at least 1.5 points per match at home in the 2022-2023 season, according to stats compiled by footystats.org. Only four teams recorded at least 1.5 points per match on the road. Four EPL teams averaged at least twice as many points per match at home compared to the road.

The one exception was Southampton FC, which recorded 0.56 points per home match and 0.74 points per road match. Southampton FC finished at the bottom of the EPL standings.

On their way to winning the Premier League championship, Manchester City FC averaged a league-best 2.74 points per home match and 2.12 points per road match. Arsenal FC, the Premier League runner-up, recorded 2.33 points per home match compared to an average of 2.05 points on the road.

In 19 home matches, Manchester City FC had 17 wins, one draw and only a single loss. On the road, the champions recorded 11 victories, three draws and three defeats. Manchester City scored 3.16 goals per match at home compared to just 1.94 goals for each road match, according to footystats.org.

Manchester City FC star Erling Haaland leads Premier League with 36 goals. Haaland totaled 14 goals in away 16 matches. The  EPL’s leading goal-scorer was much more proficient at home, netting 22 goals in 18 matches. Haaland has scored three goals on four separate occasions. Each hat-trick occurred when Manchester City had home-field advantage.

Across the board, teams have an easier time scoring goals at home. Manchester City FC, Brighton & Hove Albion FC, Arsenal FC and Liverpool FC all scored at least 2.42 goals per match at home. Tottenham Hotspur FC ranked fifth in the league with an average of 1.95 goals at home. Not a single team averaged at least 1.95 goals per away match.

Manchester United FC had an average home attendance of 73,567. It led the league by more than 12,000 fans per match. It’s probably no coincidence that Manchester United FC had as big of a home-field advantage as anyone in the EPL. The team averaged 2.47 points per home match, ranking second behind only the EPL champions. In away matches, Manchester United FC’s average plummeted to 1.42 points per match, ranking fifth.

Manchester United goalie David de Gea posted a league-high 17 clean sheets. De Gea allowed no goals in 11 home matches compared to six road matches.

Home Field Advantage in the EPL isn’t a new phenomenon. Go back 10 years to the 2022-2023 season. The pattern was exactly the same with only one team performing better away from home. 

Home-Field Advantage in Major League Soccer

Maybe it’s not surprising that English soccer teams get a boost at home. What about American soccer teams? Unlike in Europe, soccer is not the most popular sport in the United States. Not even close. With fewer ravenous fans, could home-field advantage mean less in Major League Soccer?

Home-field is a major factor for most of the teams in MLS. During the 2022 MLS season, 24 of the league’s 28 teams recorded more points per match at home than they did on the road.

The Colorado Rapids had the biggest home-field advantage, by far, in MLS. The Rapids averaged 2.06 points per home match and only 0.47 points per away match. The Philadelphia Union had a league-best 2.47 points per home match. The Union recorded 1.5 points for every match they played on the road. 

Ten of the 28 MLS teams averaged twice as many points at home as they did on the road. Of the four teams that were better on the road, none averaged even 1.4 more points per away match. 

Playing at home seems to provide a floor for MLS teams. Just about every club, even those that finished at the bottom of the standings, was at league average at home. Only one team averaged fewer than 1.28 points per home match. On the road, 21 teams didn’t even get to 1.28 points per match. More than half the league—15 teams to be exact—averaged fewer than 0.95 points for each away match.

No team had a better road performance compared to the way it played at home than the New York Red Bulls. The Red Bulls averaged 1.28 points per home match and 1.76 points per road match. It’s possible that the team’s lack of home-field advantage could be connected to its fan base. The Red Bulls are the second-best soccer team in a city that isn’t exactly known for its love of MLS. With an average attendance of 17,002, the Red Bulls’ games were only at 68% capacity on average.

The top-seeded Philadelphia Union and Los Angeles FC both went 2-0 at home during the 2022 MLS Cup Playoffs before meeting in the championship match. Home-field advantage might’ve been the difference when Los Angeles defeated Philadelphia to win MLS Cup in their home stadium.

Nashville’s Hany Mukhtar, Austin’s Sebastián Driussi and Philadelphia’s Dániel Gazdag were the top-three goal-scorers for the 2022 MLS season. They combined to score 64/2% of their goals at home.

Home-Field Advantage in the World Cup

Home-field advantage in the World Cup is a different animal than any soccer league across the globe. Only one team in the 32-team field is playing in its home country during the World Cup. The host nation doesn’t have a designated home venue like an EPL or MLS team. The World Cup is also a smaller sample size. Each team plays just three matches in group play before 16 teams advance to the knockout round. The talent gap between nations is often far too great for any host nation to overcome in the World Cup, no matter how rabid the fans in attendance might be.

France was the last host nation to win the World Cup, doing so in 1998. The French national team ended a 20-year drought for the World Cup host nation. Argentina hosted the 1978 World Cup and won the tournament, during a time when doing so was far more likely. From 1930-1978, the host nation won the World Cup five times in 11 tries. On two occasions, the host nation was the World Cup runner-up. Never did the host nation fail to make the quarterfinals during that span.

Things are much different now that the World Cup has expanded beyond the countries that usually boast one of the best teams in the world. South Africa, for instance, hosted the 2010 World Cup and didn’t make it beyond group play. The country has never reached the knockout stage of the world’s biggest soccer tournament. Qatar hosted the 2022 World Cup, losing every single match. It marked the first time that Qatar competed in the tournament 

However, there is evidence to suggest that playing in its home country might give a team the boost that it needs to survive the group stage and potentially last longer in the World Cup than it might have if the tournament were held elsewhere. 

Just take a look at the 2002 World Cup, which was played in South Korea and Japan. While Japan was eliminated in the Round of 16, South Korea made an improbable run to the semifinals. A fourth-place World Cup finish was the best result in the history of the South Korean national soccer team. South Korea had never advanced beyond the group stage before 2002. Since hosting the tournament, South Korea has twice been eliminated in the group stage and twice been eliminated in the Round of 16. 

In 1994, the United States reached the Round of 16 as the host nation. It’s not that unusual for the U.S. to make it out of the group stage, but at the time, it was the Americans’ best World Cup finish in 60 years. The U.S. went 0-3 in group play in their next World Cup appearance in 1998.

Russia reached the quarterfinals of the 2018 World Cup as the tournament’s host. It was the team’s best finish since the collapse of the Soviet Union. From 1994-2014, Russia made three group-stage appearances and failed to qualify for the tournament on three other occasions.

Conclusion 

When it comes to home-field advantage, the evidence is overwhelming. Over a big enough sample size, a large majority of soccer teams will experience far greater success at home than they do on the road. 

The reasons for this success are varied, and it’s difficult to weigh one against the other. Some players might perform better because they are able to sleep in their own beds on the night before a game rather than in a hotel. Some players are more comfortable on the field where they play half their games. Soccer players could be negatively affected by the opposing fans on the road. Others are positively impacted by the cheers of the hometown crown.

Whatever the reason, home-field advantage in soccer is apparent in professional leagues and tournaments across the world.