NBA Public Betting: Trends & Money Percentages

Efficiently navigating market trends with NBA public betting awareness can make you a sharper basketball bettor. This guide is here to help you understand what to look for in the world of NBA public betting and how it is affected by the general public itself.

Sports Betting Odds

The first step to understanding NBA public betting and how public trends work is to comprehend betting odds as a whole. The most common wagers in NBA betting and most team sports wagering are moneyline, point spread, and totals. Odds are present for all these bet types, while point spreads introduce both a spread and odds.

Related: Explore the latest trends and forecasts in our NBA Predictions.

Key Takeaways

1. NBA betting involves understanding odds, moneyline, point spread, and totals.
2. Watch for line movements to gauge public betting influence.
3. Observing where betting money is going aids bet selection.
4. NBA betting requires attention to news, team matchups and player conditions.
5. Trends show home teams win the majority but don't guarantee profit.
6. It's challenging to beat vigorish unless you have a significant edge.

Moneyline 

Placing a moneyline bet is the simplest way to wager on the NBA. Here you can bet percentages and are betting on what team will win the game. Of course, some contingents are better than others, so if even money was offered on your first line bet, you would just bet on the best team in every instance.

This is where the odds come into the equation to even the playing field. Perhaps the Los Angeles Lakers are playing the Memphis Grizzlies, and you see that the Lakers are -200 favorites while the Grizzlies are +170 underdogs. This means you have to bet $200 on the Lakers to win $100, while a $100 bet on the Grizzlies garners a $170 win.

Point Spread

The point spread is a popular way to bet on the NBA and other major US sports. Here, a point differential is introduced to even the action between mismatched teams. Let's use the same Lakers/Grizzlies example to illustrate.

For that same game, you would see a point spread of around 5, making the Lakers -5 favorites, while the Grizzlies are +5 underdogs. This means that the Lakers must win by at least six points for you to win your wager on them. The Grizzlies can lose by as much as four, and you win your Memphis bet.

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Since this is an even spread at precisely five, were the Lakers to win by exactly five points, both sides would "push." This means that whichever team you bet on, you would receive your money back. If the point spread were 5.5, for instance, a push would be impossible, as a game cannot be decided by 5.5 points.

It is important to note that odds are still in play on spread bets. For the NBA, you will see odds of around -110 on both sides, generally exactly -110. This means that you would need to bet $110 to win $100.

The sportsbook aims to set the point spread so that even action is placed on both sides, guaranteeing a slight profit through the odds. As long as action on both teams is around 50/50, they are guaranteed that small profit margin with no bearing on the game's result.

Totals

Another standard NBA bet to understand is to wager on the total per nfl game. This is betting on the over/under of how many points popular team will score overall in the game. It doesn't matter which team scores them, you are wagering on the total points.

For the same game we just discussed, perhaps the total is set at 220. This means that if 219 or fewer points are scored, the under wins; if 221 or more are scored, the over is the winning bet.

A push is possible if exactly 220 points are scored and wagers on both sides are returned with no winner. Sometimes the total will be between numbers like 220.5, in which case a push is impossible.

Like point spread betting, you will generally see odds of around -110. This is how the house makes money, assuming the public puts close to even money on the over and under.

For both spreads and totals, the line moves the spread/total is moved by the sportsbooks to encourage money to be placed on whichever side is needed to get to 50/50 action. This is why you will see varying lines that shift from the release time to when the game starts.

How To Use Public Betting and Money Percentages in NBA Betting

When the concept of the "public" is discussed in NBA betting, this represents the whole of all sports bettors. Some sites provide data to track where public money is being placed on any sporting event. It is also possible to estimate this yourself based on gauging line movement, which the public influences.

Keeping an eye on the betting public and how the field affects lines and odds can be essential for making informed wagering decisions. Let's say that 63% of bets are placed on the Denver Nuggets to cover a -6 spread against the Oklahoma City Thunder. This tells you that overwhelming public sentiment is on Denver at this point spread.

This does not necessarily mean that a bet on Denver is the best choice; much of the public represents casual bettors and not sharp and informed pros. However, most of the money is being put down by the sharpest bettors. Therefore, gauging where the money is going is likely a better indicator of a bet's viability or lack thereof.

Bet Percentage, Money Percentage, and Sharp Money

When analyzing public betting trends, it is essential to understand the difference between the number high percentage of bets being placed on a side versus the amount of money bet. When you are looking at how many bets are being placed on one side versus another, you are dealing with a large percentage of unskilled bettors. This is not a good indicator of where the sharp action is.

Where you want to look is where the money is going since sharp bettors are placing much larger wagers. The way to do this is to take a look at the overall dollar amount being placed on both sides.

You might sometimes find that the money percentage is actually the opposite of the bet percentage. This is because a vast majority of the total bets are being placed by casual bettors at low dollar amounts. 

The sharp money can swing the pendulum drastically toward the opposite side. This is a powerful indicator that public support for a wager is sharp. Looking for these situations is a smart way to use the analysis of NBA public betting trends to our advantage.

What to Pay Attention to While Betting on the NBA

Aside from looking at public betting trends, which is our main focus here, it is essential to remember NBA betting fundamentals. One thing that sets the NBA apart from some popular US sports is the heavily concentrated production coming from star players. Another is the widespread late-breaking news that can have a significant betting impact.

Not only are actual injuries with players designated questionable until close to game time frequent. The NBA is also known for rest management of players, mainly stars, and players missing games for often dubious reasons and with little notice. There is no other sport where watching the news throughout the day and close to game time has more relevance for betting.

Finding inefficient betting lines and odds immediately after important news is released is a strong strategy in NBA betting. This can be particularly beneficial for prop betting in the NBA. A player missing a game can drastically affect the potential performance of his teammates.

Another factor to consider in NBA betting is deeper diving into exact team matchups. How do the strengths and weaknesses of respective defenses and offenses match up?

This can be particularly beneficial in the betting arena when wagering on stats like total three-pointers for a player. Perhaps the opposing defense is feeble at defending the three, or the opposite. Maybe an injury or player resting will affect the matchup in a way that is not accounted for in the prop totals.

Of course, much of this should be factored into the prop lines, but we are always looking to find an edge wherever possible. Looking at more advanced statistics to see if there is anything the sportsbook or public is missing is another way to improve our chances in the long run in NBA betting.

Notable NBA Betting Trends

Let's take a look at some relevant NBA public betting trends from the 2022-2023 season to see if we can glean any beneficial information. One obvious conclusion is that home teams are winning games outright at a high clip of 58%. Against the spread, home teams are also emerging victorious 51.6% of the time.

Of course, this does not simply mean we should be betting on the home team. They will often be favored, meaning the moneyline odds will pay out at a lower rate. Plus, the slight positive lean against the spread is still insufficient to beat the "rake" (the money the house takes off free bets at the top.)

Favorites have won at a very slightly higher clip ATS (against the spread) than underdogs (50.4%), but this is essentially negligible. However, it shows how efficiently sportsbooks set spreads to ensure close to 50/50 results on both sides.

Outside of overtime games, which go over at a massive clip each week, we find that totals are very close to even each week as well between the over and the under. Still, the under has hit on non-OT affairs 51.5% of the time.

Public’s NBA Betting Record

Notable NBA Public Betting Trends

Let's take a look at some relevant NBA public betting trends from the 2022-2023 season to see if we can glean any beneficial information. One obvious conclusion is that home teams are winning games outright at a high clip of 58%. Against the spread, home teams are also emerging victorious 51.6% of the time.

Of course, this does not simply mean we should be betting on the home team. They will often be favored, meaning the moneyline odds will pay out at a lower rate. Plus, the slight positive lean against the spread is still insufficient to beat the "rake" (the money the house takes off free bets at the top.)

Favorites have won at a very slightly higher clip ATS (against the spread) than underdogs (50.4%), but this is essentially negligible. However, it shows how efficiently sportsbooks set spreads to ensure close to 50/50 results on both sides.

Outside of overtime games, which go over at a massive clip each week, we find that totals are very close to even each week as well between the over and the under. Still, the under has hit on non-OT affairs 51.5% of the time.

Considering Team NBA Betting Trends

As a matter of course, it can be wise to take a look at individual team trends in any given season once some data is available. Some teams may cover against the spread or fail to at a higher clip than others. Other trends may also be noticed, such as home and away splits, the potential for games to go over/under, and more.

An excellent 2022-2023 example of this is with teams like the Celtics, Sixers, Bucks, Nuggets, and Kings, who all have very high win rates against the spread. Some have also been dismal against the spread, such as the Spurs, Rockets, and Mavericks. If one had noticed these trends early enough and caught on, some value could have been had. 

Still, it is also important to realize that sample sizes can be too small for any of this data to be actionable. Yet, it may be worth at least some consideration when betting on the NBA since we need to seek out any advantage we can find. One must gauge when the data is enough to be worth accounting for, yet get in on the gambling action before it is too late to cash in.

The Public Against the Odds: Beating the Juice

Any bettor who has looked into the game of wagering on sports in any detail is aware that it is hard to beat the house. Mainly when betting on sides/totals and without some advanced analytical model providing a definite data-driven edge. The average casual bettor will find it challenging to overcome the vigorish the sportsbook takes off the top in sports betting.

Even if you are fortunate enough to win your bets at close to a 50% clip, it's not enough to beat the "juice." In fact, in betting on spreads and totals, you could likely flip a coin and bet on either side and over a large sample size, you probably should come close to 50%. Yet, you will lose to the rake in the end if you aren’t winning at a much much higher percentage or clip.

The same applies to moneyline betting, although slightly less clear to comprehend. To illustrate, let's say that the Golden State Warriors are a -180 favorite against the Utah Jazz on the moneyline. This makes the Jazz a +155 underdog in this instance.

If you convert these odds to a percentile, the Warriors have a 64.3% chance of victory, assuming these odds are set efficiently. Utah, on the other hand, would win 39.2% of the time. You will note that these percentages add up to 103.5%, not 100%.

That 3.5% is the vigorish (also known as vig) the house collects off the top. This is how they ensure money is made over a long sample size on moneyline betting.

Finding Value With Actual NBA Odds

Betting calculators are available throughout the industry, enabling you to ascertain what the actual or "fair" odds should be on money line wagers. This is done by adjusting the sportsbook odds, including the juice, to actual odds equal to 100%.

These odds should come close to representing the actual chances of either team winning the game, assuming the sportsbook's outputs are efficient. You can then compare this to the moneyline odds presented and ascertain where there may be some value.

For example, using our Warriors/Jazz scenario, the actual win probability for the Warriors is 62.1%, while for Utah, it is 37.9%. Using these odds, the fair odds would be approximately -164 on the Warriors and +164 on the Jazz.

This clearly shows that you are getting worse value than the actual projected win percentage would indicate on both sides. Still, you can ascertain if there is a higher expected value (EV) on one side or the the other side using betting percentages. In this instance, it is almost equal, with a bet on the Warriors having a $-3.36 EV on a $100 bet, while a Jazz wager has a $-3.40 EV.

As you can see, both bets have a negative expected value. If they didn’t, sportsbooks wouldn’t make money. The goal is to find the wagers that are closest to an even or positive EV.

Based on the overall rake, you can also determine scenarios where the EV overall on the odds for a specific game are more or less favorable. This can help you find which games to avoid and decide which may have the most value for betting.

Hopefully, we have been able to help give you a better idea and understanding of NBA public betting trends and why they matter. By incorporating this comprehension into your betting process, you will have another tool in your gambling arsenal to give you the best chance for success in sports wagering.