How to become a handicapper

A serious sports fan will eventually become a handicapper 99 percent of the time. The more you watch sports, the more you learn about it. How an organization works, the talent level of the individuals on the team, and the way a team likes to play.

While the fandom for a particular team will remain consistent from season to season, sports fans develop opinions on how that team will perform. Once a fan develops an opinion on how a team will play before a season or a game is played, that’s the beginning of sports handicapping.

As those opinions get stronger, and a fan has the belief that the opinion is valid and is worth backing with cash, that fan has become a handicapper.

The Principles of becoming a handicapper

There are a number of factors that go into becoming a sharp handicapper. Let’s use professional football as an example. When the Chiefs and Bills are playing in the regular season, there are a number of categories that the handicapper wants to look at before making a selection on the game.

Having an understanding of the strengths of both teams is essential. Quarterback play is a key factor in any NFL game, and comparing passing yards, touchdown passes and interceptions for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen is a great place to start.

But finding additional statistics like the number of turnovers, time of possession, and defensive efficiency are also essential.

Finding the key statistics when comparing two teams is just the start of the handicapping process – especially at the professional level. 

The most important factor when handicapping a game may be individual matchups. Wide receiver vs. cornerback, running back vs. middle linebacker, offensive left tackle vs defensive right end and quarterback vs. free safety are just a few of the matchups that must be considered before making an intelligent wager on a game.

Another factor to consider is the history of the two teams when they meet each other. Two teams may have similar records, but one team may have a winning streak against a particular opponent. This kind of trend can be very important when making a final decision before the wager is made.

For example, the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints have a long history of playing each other twice every year. For years, the Saints would cover the spread the large majority of the time when the game was in Atlanta, and the Falcons would cover the majority of games in New Orleans. 

The records of the two teams may be a basic indicator of which team is stronger, but it may have little to do with which team will cover the spread. The oddsmakers are taking all factors into account when the line is set, and the most basic is the record of each team. 

However, understanding the mindset of each team is vital when it comes to handicapping a particular game. If the Minnesota Vikings have won 5 straight games and they are playing the Washington Commanders, the mood around the Vikings may be light, happy, and somewhat satisfied. The Commanders may have lost 2 of their last 3 games, and all of those games were all by no more than 3 points.

The Commanders come into the game breathing fire and desperate to win. The Vikings know they are a good team and they expect to win. However, they can’t manage the anger on the Washington side and suddenly fall behind by 2 touchdowns. Instead of a winning team recording another victory, the hungry team is ahead and pushing the pace. Suddenly, the underdogs are in charge and find a way to cover the spread.

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Analyzing Different Handicap Betting Markets

It’s all about value when it comes to handicapping games over the course of a season. It’s not enough to look at the key statistics, analyze the matchups, and take note of the key trends in the series. 

Handicappers have an excellent understanding of the betting market and know which teams the public tends to back and which ones they stay away from.

When the New England Patriots were regular Super Bowl participants, the public was backing them most of the time. So, if the Patriots were playing the Dolphins in Foxborough, the public might be all over them when the line was New England -13. 

Based on all the key handicapping factors, the Patriots should have been no more than 8-point favorites. So, the sharp bettor might look to Miami in this game. The Patriots were clearly the better team, but they weren’t 13 points better. If they win this game by 7, 10 or even 12 points, those backing the Dolphins would win their bets.

The Cowboys are another team that tends to attract the public’s money. Sometimes, the sharp handicapper can find an advantage by betting against these “public” teams.

Conversely, backing less popular teams can be profitable. A team like the Detroit Lions has been a loser for years, but if they turn things around in a given season, a smart handicapper may find several spots where they can back the Lions and win their bets.

Preparation is vital

One of the most important aspects in becoming a handicapper is doing the hard work associated with the job. Handicapping the NFL, college football, the NBA, the NHL, and Major League Baseball is about putting in consistent effort on a game-to-game or week-to-week basis.

The worst thing a handicapper can do is feel satisfied after one or two winning weeks. The minute an individual feels like they have the sport figured out and beaten is the exact time things turn around and a handicapper will get smacked in the face with a series of painful losses.

A good handicapper takes the emotion out of the process and leaves it out. Don’t feel satisfied with a  few good wins, and don’t lose your confidence because you have tasted defeat a few times.

Establish a regular routine that includes studying statistics, figuring out the matchups, and learning the trends in a series. Stay consistent by putting in the number of hours to really learn the significance of the matchup. Learn as much as you can about the individuals that play the game. This includes following all the injury reports and making decisions on which player is competing while hurt, which players have personal issues that affect their mindset, and which ones are strong and healthy.

Do this work yourself, and don’t depend on the experts that are on television and radio. It’s your money that is at stake, not the expert who may understand one or two aspects but hasn’t done the same amount of work that you have done.

A smart and effective handicapper will work at his craft and consistently apply all of the factors. There’s no doubling and tripling the bets after wins or losses. A winning handicapper is a consistent handicapper.

While there is betting on all sports, those starting out may be better off sticking to the NFL or college football. This is not because it’s easy to come up with a winner, but it is because teams only play one game a week. It’s easier to build a routine that leads up to making a handicapping decision for a game that will be played on Thursday, Sunday, or Monday night than it is for teams playing on multiple nights per week.

Preparing to a Pressure of Working as a Handicapper

Make no mistake about it, there is a ton of pressure on a serious handicapper. Even the strongest and sharpest minds may feel doubt about the work that is being done after 2 or 3 bad weeks. But as a handicapper gains experience, there is an understanding that it’s all about the process – not the results.

A handicapper who does the work on a consistent basis and is not fazed by bad losses is going to have a much better chance of coming out on top than the handicapper who is emotional and loses his mind after every painful defeat.

This kind of attitude comes with experience because the handicapper is not a robot. In the first couple of years, the wins will be sweet and the losses will be painful. As the years go by, the handicapper will have staying power in this challenging business if the routine remains consistent.

Selling your picks

It’s one thing to work as a handicapper on your own behalf; it’s quite another to go into the business of offering your picks to the public as a business.

The first thing needed is talent followed by confidence. If a handicapper is going to legitimately sell his or her picks, those selections need to be backed by several seasons of success. It’s not about shouting on radio and TV commercials and telling the public how great you are. Charlatans are easily discovered.

However, by building on success and depending on a routine to come up with winners, you have a chance for consistent success. If you have the capital to advertise your success in the media, you have a chance to be profitable in the business.

The large majority of those who get involved in the handicapping world are in it for a very short time. Losses, false claims, and a lack of credibility wipe out the phonies and failures. It is best to build slowly and avoid outrageous claims.

Handicappers who say they win 80, 85, or 90 percent of the time are not to be believed, because none of the best handicappers can deliver at that kind of rate.

A solid handicapper can make a profit by winning 58 percent of the time or more, and a professional handicapper might win as much as 65 percent of the time in a spectacular season. Don’t make outrageous claims for the purpose of getting customers to part with their hard-earned cash.

Deliver the winning samples of your picks to prospective customers by time-stamping those picks so they know you have credibility. Avoid talking about your “AFC Game of the Year” or your “NFC 10-star special.”

If you want to sell your success, explain your process and document your picks. Admit when you have losses. While that won’t help the desperate customer who is looking for a sure-fire winner, it will help you build long-term credibility.

The most important thing for any handicapper is to be able to look in the mirror and know that the work is being done, and the process is thorough and effective.

Be honest with yourself, and be honest with your customers if long-term success is the ultimate goal.